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ESC Working Group“Earthquake Physics: Field Observations, Experimental and Numerical Modeling and Comprehensive Analysis”.Background. One of the most perspective direction in seeking for qualitatively new precursors of strong earthquakes consists in investigation effects of collective behavior and synchronization of variations of different geophysical fields within preparatory area of future shock. This approach needs in application of modern signal processing technique (wavelets, new point processing analysis methods) and ideas about geophysical signals noise structure (fractal and multi-fractal noise characteristics) to the results of field and experimental observations. The mutual analysis of heterogeneous data is the way for consolidating efforts of specialists in different branches of geophysics. Goals. The WG is intended for elaborating new approaches for joint analysis of field and laboratory data with the aim to discover latent and non-evident relations between different physical and geochemical fields during earthquake preparation processes. One of the essential part of activity will be the development of new multidimensional techniques for extracting effects of collective behavior (synchronous variation of parameters or of their statistical properties) within multiple data flow from systems of seismological and geophysical stations, which will be based on modern methods of signal processing. Low-frequency monitoring time series recorded by advanced techniques, global seismic network records and seismic catalogues will be the main objects of field observations data analysis. Physical-modeling laboratory experiments under different loading or cracking conditions and controlled elastic, electromagnetic impact and fluid injection will be the important direction for studying the patterns of acoustic activity, ultrasonic velocities and gas release variation as model of seismic regime.
WG Team:
Alexey Lyubushin (Russian Federation) - chair person 2008-2014 Institute of the Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences e-mail: http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/NonlinDyn_CaucasSeism.pdf
T.Chelidze and N.Varamashvili. Models of Stick-Slip Motion: Impact of Periodic Forcing. http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/Stick_Slip_Motion.pdf
R.Teisseyre. Shear Oscillations, Rotations and Interactions in Asymmetric Continuum. http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/Shear_Oscill_Rot_Inter.pdf
R.Teisseyre and Z.Czechowski. Processes in Micro-Fracture Continuum. http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/MicroFract_Contin.pdf
T.Chelidze, T.Matcharashvili, O.Lursmanashvili, N.Varamashvili, N.Zhukova, and E.Meparidze. Triggering and Synchronization of Stick-Slip: Experiments on Spring-Slider System. http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/StickSlip_Trigg_Synch.pdf
A.Ponomarev, D.Lockner, S.Stroganova, S.Stanchits, and V.Smirnov. Oscillating Load-Induced Acoustic Emission in Laboratory Experiment. http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/LoadInduced_AE_Lab.pdf
A.Ponomarev, G.Sobolev, and Yu.Maibuk. Acoustic Emission Dynamics Initiated by Fluid Infusion on Laboratory Scale. http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/AE_Dyn_FluidInf.pdf
R.Teisseyre, T.Chelidze, and K.P.Teisseyre. Phase-Shifted Fields: Some Experimental Evidence. http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/PhaseShifted_Fields.pdf
G.Sobolev and A.Lyubushin. Periodical Oscillations of Microseisms before the Sumatra Earthquake of December 26, 2004. http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/PeriodOscill_Microseisms.pdf
G.A.Sobolev, A.A.Lyubushin, and N.A.Zakrzhevskaya. Synchronizations of Microseismic Oscillations as the Indicators of the Instability of a Seismically Active Region. http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/Synch_MicrosOscill.pdf
A.Lyubushin. Multifractal Parameters of Low-Frequency Microseisms. http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/MultiFract_SeismNoise.pdf
T.Matcharashvili, T.Chelidze, V.Abashidze, N.Zhukova, and E.Meparidze. Changes in Dynamics of Seismic Processes Around Enguri High Dam Reservoir Induced by Periodic Variation of Water Level. http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/Around_EnguriHighDam.pdf
T.Chelidze, T.Matcharashvili, and G.Melikadze. Earthquakes’ Signatures in Dynamics of Water Level Variations in Boreholes. http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/Water_Level_Variations.pdf
T.Chelidze, V. de Rubeis, T.Matcharashvili, and P.Tosi. Dynamical Changes Induced by Strong Electromagnetic Discharges in Earthquakes’ Waiting Time Distribution at the Bishkek Test Area (Central Asia) http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/Electrom_Discharge_Earthq.pdf
Other publications:V.A.Petrov, Niu Anfu, V.B.Smirnov, A.O.Mostryukov, Li Zhixiong, A.V.Ponomarev, Jiang Zaisen, and Shen Xuhui. Field of Tectonic Stresses from Focal Mechanisms of Earthquakes and Recent Crustal Movements from GPS Measurements in China. http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/FocMec_GPS_China.pdf
A.A.Lyubushin Microseismic Noise in the Low Frequency Range (Periods of 1–300 min): Properties and Possible Prognostic Features. http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/LowFreq_PrognFeatures.pdf
V.B.Smirnov, A.V.Ponomarev, P.Benard, and A.V.Patonin Regularities in Transient Modes in the Seismic Process according to the Laboratory and Natural Modeling. http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/TransModes_SeismProc.pdf
M.G.Potanina, V.B.Smirnov, and P.Bernard Patterns of Seismic Swarm Activity in the Corinth Rift in 2000–2005. http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/Swarm_Corinth_Rift.pdf
G.A.Sobolev. Seismicity dynamics and earthquake predictability. http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/Eq_Predictabilty.pdf
ESC-2012, Moscow, 19-24 Aug 2012Young Seismologists Training Course, Obninsk, 25-30 Aug 2012.A.A. Lyubushin. Fundamentals of data mining of the statistical properties of scalar time series and sequences of events. http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/Lyubushin_ESC-2012_YSTC.pdf Data for YSTC within zip-file:: http://eqphys.narod2.ru/news/Data/Lyubushin_ESC-2012_YSTC_Signals.zip
Great Japan Earthquake 11 of March 2011, M=9.0, prediction based on multifractal properties of low-frequency seismic noise.Does Japan approach the next Mega-EQ?
The analysis of multifractal properties of low-frequency seismic noise from Japan seismic network F-net since the beginning of 1997 allowed a hypothesis about approaching Japan Islands to a future seismic catastrophe to be formulated at the middle of 2008. The base for such a hypothesis was statistically significant decreasing of multi-fractal singularity spectrum support width mean value. The peculiarities of correlation coefficient estimate within 1 year time window between median values of singularity spectra support width and generalized Hurst exponent allowed to make a decision that starting from July of 2010 Japan come to the state of waiting strong earthquake. This prediction of Tohoku mega-earthquake, initially with estimate of lower magnitude as 8.3 only (at the middle of 2008) and further on with estimate of the time beginning of waiting earthquake (from the middle of 2010) was published in advance in a number of scientific articles and abstracts on international conferences. The analysis of seismic noise data after Tohoku mega-earthquake indicates increasing of probability of the 2nd strong earthquake within the region where the north part of Philippine sea plate is approaching island Honshu (Nankai Trough). This region is characterized by relatively low values of singularity spectrum support width what is an indicator of seismic danger. Estimates of multifractal properties of seismic noise provide a new tool for prediction of strong earthquake. Plotting the maps of singularity spectra support width within moving time window based on the time series from monitoring systems presents a new method of dynamic seismic hazard estimate. This gives a possibility to inspect the origin and evolution of the “spots of danger”.
When and Were the prediction was published before the earthquake:
Lyubushin A.A. Multi-fractal Properties of Low-Frequency Microseismic Noise in Japan, 1997-2008. - Book of abstracts of 7th General Assembly of the Asian Seismological Commission and Japan Seismological Society, 2008 Fall meeting, Tsukuba, Japan, 24-27 November 2008, p.92. http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/Tohoku_Prediction_1st.pdf
Lyubushin A.A. Synchronization Trends and Rhythms of Multifractal Parameters of the Field of Low-Frequency Microseisms – Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, 2009, Vol. 45, No. 5, pp. 381–394. http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/Tohoku_Prediction_2nd.pdf
Lyubushin A.A. The Statistics of the Time Segments of Low-Frequency Microseisms: Trends and Synchronization – Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, 2010, Vol. 46, No. 6, pp. 544–554. http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/Tohoku_Prediction_3rd.pdf
Lyubushin A.A. Synchronization of multi-fractal parameters of regional and global low-frequency microseisms – European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2010, Vienna, 02-07 of May, 2010, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 12, EGU2010-696, 2010, http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/Tohoku_Prediction_4th.pdf
Lyubushin A.A. Synchronization phenomena of low-frequency microseisms. European Seismological Commission, 32nd General Assembly, September 06-10, 2010, Montpelier, France. Book of abstracts, p.124, session ES6. http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/Tohoku_Prediction_5th.pdf
Lyubushin A.A. Cluster Analysis of Low-Frequency Microseismic Noise – Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, 2011, Vol. 47, No. 6, pp. 488-495 (submitted April 26, 2010) http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/Tohoku_Prediction_6th.pdf
Publications after the earthquake: Lyubushin A.A. (2011) Seismic Catastrophe in Japan on March 11, 2011: Long-Term Prediction on the Basis of Low-Frequency Microseisms – Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 2011, Vol. 46, No. 8, pp. 904–921. http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/Tohoku_Prediction_Methods.pdf
Lyubushin A. (2012) Prognostic properties of low-frequency seismic noise. – Natural Science, 4, 659-666.doi: 10.4236/ns.2012.428087.
Lyubushin A.A. Mapping the Properties of Low-Frequency Microseisms for Seismic Hazard Assessment - Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, 2013, Vol.49, No.1, pp.9–18. ISSN 1069-3513, DOI: 10.1134/S1069351313010084. http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/SeismicNoiseProperties_Maps.pdf
Further development of seismic noise field at Japan, results of data analysis after 11 of March 2011. http://eqphys.narod2.ru/pdf_files/After_Tohoku_More_MegaEQ.pdf
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